Is Aaron Judge's $90 Million Contract A Mistake? ESPN Analyst Weighs In

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Post on May 18, 2025

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Is Aaron Judge's $360 Million Contract a Mistake? An ESPN Analyst Weighs In

The New York Yankees' blockbuster deal with Aaron Judge has sent shockwaves through baseball. But is it a shrewd investment or a costly gamble? One prominent ESPN analyst isn't so sure.

The New York Yankees and Aaron Judge shocked the baseball world this offseason with a record-breaking nine-year, $360 million contract. This monumental deal, the largest in Yankees history and among the largest in MLB history, has ignited a heated debate: Was it a wise financial decision, or a potential albatross around the team's neck? While many hail it as a necessary move to retain their superstar slugger, questions remain about the long-term implications of such a significant investment.

One ESPN analyst, whose opinion carries considerable weight in the baseball community, has voiced concerns. While acknowledging Judge's undeniable talent and marketability, the analyst highlighted several factors that could make the contract appear less than ideal in the coming years.

The Analyst's Concerns: A Deeper Dive

The ESPN analyst's skepticism stems from several key areas:

• Age and Injury Risk: At 31 years old, Judge is entering the latter stages of his prime. While he's proven incredibly durable throughout his career, the risk of significant injuries increases with age. A prolonged injury could significantly impact his performance and the return on investment for the Yankees.

• Regression to the Mean: Judge's 2022 season was historic, setting a new American League record for home runs. While his talent is undeniable, maintaining that level of performance over nine years is statistically improbable. Regression to the mean is a real possibility, which could make parts of the contract less valuable than initially anticipated.

• The Shifting Landscape of Baseball: The game of baseball is constantly evolving. New strategies, rule changes (like the pitch clock), and the increasing use of analytics could impact Judge's effectiveness in the later years of his contract.

• Salary Cap Implications: While MLB doesn't have a traditional salary cap like other major sports leagues, the Yankees still operate under financial constraints. This hefty contract could limit their ability to sign other crucial players, potentially hindering the team's overall competitiveness.

Counterarguments and the Yankees' Perspective:

Despite the concerns, many argue that the contract is justifiable. Judge's on-field performance, combined with his significant marketability and leadership qualities, makes him a valuable asset beyond just his batting statistics.

The Yankees likely factored in these potential risks, emphasizing Judge's value as a franchise player, leader, and box-office draw. His presence alone boosts ticket sales, merchandise revenue, and overall team branding.

The Verdict: A Complex Equation

Ultimately, whether Aaron Judge's $360 million contract is a "mistake" is subjective and depends on how his performance unfolds over the next nine years. The ESPN analyst's concerns are valid, highlighting the inherent risks involved in such a substantial long-term commitment. However, the Yankees' perspective, focused on the total value Judge brings both on and off the field, suggests a more nuanced assessment. Only time will tell if this unprecedented deal will ultimately be viewed as a triumph or a cautionary tale in the history of baseball contracts.

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